How Bout Dem Dodgers

If your winning percentage is .600 or better, you're having a terrific season. When it's near .700 you're on fire.  John and I have both written about the surprising Orioles, but the Dodgers, at .698, are the best team in baseball. Winning 19 of your 23 home games helps of course. And they're doing it in spite of a rash of injuries, Matt Kemp's being potentially the most damaging. Isotopes have really contributed. No, that's not some bizarre scientific theory of mine, Albuquerque Isotope call ups have ably filled in for missing starters, the latest hero being Ivan de Jesus Jr., who knocked in three late runs last night.

Kemp is/was the second best hitter in either league with a .359 average, 12 home runs, and 28 RBI in just 34 games. He's second in slugging with a .726 average, just behind Josh Hamilton's .758, and second in OPS at a whopping 1.173, just behind Hamilton's 1.186. (Okay, I guess I should mention that David Wright is batting .403 - but he doesn't hit for power like Kemp and Hamilton.) 

Kemp's been out for a week and it hasn't mattered. LA keeps on winning. They've won their last six straight without him, including last night's come from behind win over Arizona.. "I'm overwhelmed with joy," says Kemp. "I'm really proud of the way they're playing. Five guys disabled, four starters. I don't know what other teams could do with that. Everybody has stepped up. It's just amazing how everybody is doing something to help us win. It's exciting to watch." Kemp is expected back next week.

Joining Kemp on the DL have been third baseman Juan Uribe, infielder Jerry Hairston, who was hitting .315, and second baseman Mark Ellis, who was hitting .327. Think second base is a safe position to play? Well Ellis nearly had his leg amputated a day after the Cardinals' Tyler Greene upended him trying to break up a double play. Ellis was rushed to hospital after showing up the next day with severe swelling in his left leg. He was having a fine year (.273).  Healthy so far is catcher A.J. Ellis, who hit over .300 in three of his last four years in Triple-A. He's finally starting and is ninth in the NL with a .327 average.

Kemp's not the only Dodger outfielder having a great year. Tony Gwynn, whose dad could hit a bit, is having his best year yet, batting .292. Andre Ethier, who has had a rather mercurial career including arguments with management, has 9 home runs and a league-leading 40 runs batted in. He's hitting .321 and has a .965 OPS. Ethier is proving that last year (just 11 home runs) is history. His wOBA had fallen from .382 in 2008, good for tenth place among major league outfielders, to just .343 last year, which just got him into the top 30.

What is wOBA you ask. Weighted On Base Percentage is designed to evaluate a player's overall offensive performance. It is based on the concept that not all plate events are created equal. It seeks to be an even more accurate indicator of the value of a plate appearance than on base percentage or OPS. After all, a single is better than a walk - since it has a greater potential for moving runners along - and a home run, well it can clear the bases.

An average wOBA is .320. A .370 wOBA is great. Its formula changes slightly from year to year. The 2011 formula was
                        wOBA = (0.69  X BB) + 0.72 X HBP + 0.89 X 1B + 1.26 X 2B + 1.60 X 3B + 2.08 X HR + 0.25 X SB - 0.25 X CS) / PA

The Dodgers can only hope that Ethier doesn't go down like he did last year. He was .379/.442/.744 after 33 games when he injured his pinky finger and then hit .260 the rest of the way. Bobby Abreu, their fourth outfielder, is rebounding after very sub-par seasons (.255, .253 with only 8 home runs) his last two years in Lala Land. He's hitting .292.

But Kemp and Ethier aside, as you may have guessed it's pitching that's doing it for the Dodgers - a trio of lefty starters - Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Chris Capuano. Only Atlanta's Brandon Beachy has a better record than Kershaw and Lilly. Kershaw's success is not a big surprise. In 2008 he was the youngest player in the majors. In 2009 he was 8-8, 2.79. In 2010 he was the 13-10, 2.91 and last year he was 21-5 with 248 strikeouts and a 2.28 ERA, winning the pitching Triple Crown and the Cy Young.

A surprise, though he had a couple of pretty good years with the Cubs, is Lilly, who was 12-14 last year but  is 5-0, 1.70 so far this year. I know Rick and other Blue Jay fans will remember his days in Toronto. What is different this year? Well, he's decided he needs to get ahead of right-handed hitters. He's fifth in the majors throwing a first pitch strike 68% of the time - and he's managing to do it with a variety of pitches. Righties are hitting just .163 when Lilly is on the mound. Over the past 9 years they have averaged 22 home runs off him. So far this year just one.

In spite of going 18-12 for Milwaukee in 2005, Chris Capuano was below .500 lifetime entering 2012. He was 11-12, 4.55 last year but he's 6-1, 2.25 this year. If the Dodgers, who are already seven games ahead of second place San Francisco in the West, start winning on the road too look out. And if Kershaw, Lilly, and Capuano keep this up they're going to send me scrambling through the history books to see if any other team has had three league-leading lefty starters.

What to do about miserable umpiring?

Seems as if last week’s posting was prophetic in a way. As John pointed out to me the other day: what is it with these people named Brett? Last week, it was the classic video of George Brett’s response to being called out in the infamous Pine Tar Game. Not to be outdone, this week we had Brett Lawrie’s meltdown during a ninth-inning at bat where the umpire made not one, but two very bad strike calls against the Blue Jays’ star rookie. Here’s the coverage from MLB.com:



Okay, these talking heads are toeing the party line here. They work for Major League Baseball, so I would expect them to speak this way. Yes, Lawrie was completely out of line. Yes, he should not have fired his helmet, but it’s what’s not said that I find curious. Listen to it again. One of the heads say something about the two called strikes not being strikes, but then the whole thing is dropped to focus on the fact that Lawrie’s gonna get it from MLB. They’re making it sound as if he will be suspended for a long time. Completely forgotten from the ensuing discussion is the fact that MLB’s umpire made two horrendous calls. Lawrie had good reason to go ballistic (but firing his helmet like that was a stupid thing to do).

I can see where MLB is coming from. It has to be strictly hands-off of umpires, or the game could descent into anarchy. Case in point: some hare-brained knucklehead threw a glass of beer at Miller as he exited the field at the game’s end. But, as in my diatribe against a bad call in a Pirates game last fall, the real problem here begins and ends with the umpire and his agenda. The men in black should always strive to remain unseen. Miller didn’t do that here.

Bill Miller is not a good umpire. I could also show you a clip of an horrendous call on a play at third base last season in an A’s/Mariners game. First, here’s a computer analysis of of the Lawrie at bat. What you are seeing is where the balls were thrown from the umpire’s vantage point:

You’ll notice that pitch #5 if way off the plate. Miller called this a strike. Even with Molina behind the plate (with the reputation of being the best pitch framer in the business, Miller should have seen that this was not a strike. Lawrie, on the delayed call, starts down to first base, then Miller calls it a strike. Lawrie stalks back to the plate.

Here’s where it gets really interesting. The rookie has now shown up the veteran umpire. It’s the last pitch that is really disgusting. Miller calls Lawrie out on another ball and it’s my feeling that what you’re seeing is a bad umpire teaching the rook a lesson: don’t show me up, son, or this is what will happen. If Miller had more quickly called the fifth pitch a strike, he still would have been horribly wrong, but Lawrie, who assumed that it was clearly a ball and he had a walk, wouldn’t have started off for first base.

Now Miller had made a really bad call, compounded it by delaying it as well, but then he proceeds to blow another call, and I believe it was intentional. Miller should face some consequences. Will he? Possibly, but we’ll never know because MLB doesn’t talk about these things. The next night, Miller was at third base (Lawrie was still playing because he was appealing his 4-game suspension), and the rookie apologized to the umpire. What I would really like to know is if Miller apologized in return? He had to have seen replays by then, and if there was no vindictiveness on his part, he certainly should have acknowledged it to the rookie. My bet is that he didn’t.

Okay, now the flip side of coin. In yesterday’s Jays game against the Mets, a call was missed in the ninth inning on a throw to second by Bautista. It was a brilliant play and the Mets’ runner Baxter, trying to turn a single into a double and put his team into position to tie the game, got thrown out at second. The throw was amazing, the catch was amazing, but Escobar’s, the Jays’ shortstop, swipe tag clearly missed the sliding Met.The second base umpire was shielded on the play.

My team came out on top in this encounter, but I am still unhappy. Why? Because the Mets’ manager came out to argue the call and suggested that the umpire should ask for some help from the other umpires. This is sometimes done. The first base umpire would have clearly seen that the tag never touched the sliding Baxter. Brian Knight’s response was, “I can’t do that.”

Why the hell couldn’t he do that?

MLB really does have to do something about umpiring. Is it just me, or does it seem to be getting worse?

 -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Some additional reading and viewing on the subject:


From the Toronto Star

From the Vancouver Sun

And from that A’s/Mariners game:

42

What’s in a number? For over twenty years now Bill James and the sabermetric types have shown how numbers create statistics that can give fans and teams more information on which to base their assumptions of how a player/team is or can do in real games. The reference to 42 is the number from the Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams. It is a cult classic with lots of outrageous characters and ideas. When the robot Deep Thought is sent to find the meaning of life the universe and everything. He does as he is told. It takes 7.5 million years, but after all the myriad facts gathered and tremendous computations involved, Deep Thought returns with the answer -- 42. Of course this is the answer, but it is as meaningless as the question. It is impossible to have one single all encompassing number to track down greatness and plug in success.

Will has spoken of the ERA+ and I used the OPS+ last week. I think that these numbers indicate how a player or team is doing relative to others regardless of the different parks played in. One hundred is the average mark for both measurements. They are good ways to compare all players of all time periods. Also, I think these are the best numbers for comparing all teams from both sides of the bat.

The AL East is still jammed up with all the teams scrambling for first and the unlikely Orioles tied with the Rays. So why are they ahead and Red Sox down in fifth? I am looking at whole team numbers. All teams have stars and this year it’s Josh Hamilton and Derek Jeter for career years and personal bests. But it is a team that wins or loses and managers who make lines ups and decisions on pitching. The way the ERA+ falls in the AL East is Orioles- 119, Jays -118, Yankees - 106, Rays- 100 followed by the Sox at 90 --remember 100 is average. The OPS+ is Yankees and Sox -- 115, Rays -- 114, Orioles -- 110 and the Jays -- 88. If you combine these numbers and take an average you get a rough approximation of who is in first, Orioles -- 114.5, Yankees-- 110.5, Rays -- 107, Jays -- 103 and Sox stuck at 102.5. Not actually the way it is, but fairly close for now. Just thinking out loud here.

Maybe we need more numbers, but which ones? All these teams are above average. In the AL Central it is a different matter. In the AL Central I have figured out the same scenario. The current standings are Indians, Tigers, Sox, Royals and Twins. Using my approach all the Central teams are below average. The combined average for ERA+ and OPS+ is as follows: Sox -- 99.5, Indians -- 98.5, Tigers -- 97.5, Royals -- 96, and the Twinkies at 81.

Considering other numbers, the Orioles are out in front in several categories, HRs against -- 40, WHIP -- 1.260, ERA -- 3.49 as well as OPS+. These numbers in combination would suggest their success to date.

One category not discussed is BB and SO. The Sox and the Jays have the worst record with a percentage of 1.98 and 1.78 respectively. Pretty bad since all the other AL East teams are considerably better at striking out batters.

So, which of the numbers are the best to use, which give enough practical information to the fans and the GM and managers? The Sabermetric numbers are starting to be used on a more consistent basis. However, I point out that the miracle of the 2002 Athletics has not materialized in long-term success for them. It did not work out for the Jays either when they had Billy Bean officiant, JP Riccardi. Now that Bill James himself, is in place in Boston, the Sox are in the basement.

The game of baseball is, like all sports, a horse race. You cannot predetermine a win. You can have an educated guess, but happily, all the numbers just do not add up to a certainty of success.

Please tell me which numbers you favor and which give the best information. I like the + numbers as more information is added in. Baseball is a team sport made up of hundreds individual stats. But they all have to boil-down to a number that can lead to a successful campaign or they are useless.

Where'd These Guys Come From?

What's up with the Orioles? Isn't it supposed to be the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or perhaps Blue Jays showing the way in the AL East? Well the Rays are doing pretty well and the Yankees and Jays are hangin' in there, but the surprise of the year so far has been the O's. 

In 2009 they finished last and lost almost 100 games (98). In 2010 they finished last and lost almost as many games (96). Last year, under Buck Showalter, they still finished last, but they didn't lose quite so many games (93). Do they have enough talent to keep on getting better? Maybe.

Matt Wieters, their Gold Glove, switch-hitting, 6 foot 5 inch catcher from Goose Creek, South Carolina, was the 5th overall draft pick in 2007. He was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2008. In March of '09 he was the Sports Illustrated coverboy as a top prospect - a catcher who can hit. In 2010, his first year in the bigs, Wieters hit 11 homers. Last year he hit 22. He already has 8 this season to go with an .897 Slugging Average.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy may not have great range, but hits a lot of home runs for a shortstop - 26 in 2007 and 24 in 2008 with the Brewers. He hit 30 last year and he has nine already this year. 

In his first three years with the O's center fielder Adam Jones averaged 20 home runs. This year he already has 11. The Orioles have three of the top ten home run leaders in the league at this point.

Third baseman Mark Reynolds still led the league but he did not strike out 200 times last year (196) after years of 204, 223, and 211 K's. Ouch. But in his best year - in Arizona - he had 44 home runs and 103 RBI and he hit 37 homers in 2011, his first year in Baltimore. He has just two this year and guess what - he's still strikin' out a lot - 36 times in 89 at bats! What if he starts making contact? 

How about their pitching? Well, six foot six Jason Hammell was 27-30 in the past three years in Colorado with an ERA over 4.50, but he's 4-2 this year with a 2.68 ERA. Not much was expected of Brian Matusz (1-9, 10.68 ERA in 2011) and he is 2-4, 5.50 this year. Jake Arrieta, who was 10-8 last season, has disappointed so far just 2-4, 5.15. 

The big star has been leftie Wei-Yin Chen. He's 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA. In 2009 Chen had the lowest ERA (1.54) since 1968 in the Nippon Professional League's Central League. Last night he outpitched C.C. Sabathia, allowing the potent Yankee lineup just four hits in seven innings. 

Are these Orioles the same team we have come to know and expect in last place? Sabathia had lost only twice in 24 starts against the O's. He lost to them last night. A fluke? Well, Baltimore pitchers have now held the Yanks to two or fewer runs in four of their last five meetings.

It helps that their bullpen has been great. They are a combined 8-2. Closer Jim Johnson, who had just nine saves last year, got his 12th in 12 chances in '12 last night. And Pedro Strop (3-1) has finished seven of the Orioles' games. His ERA is just 1.29.

So is Baltimore for real? The Blue Jays thought they had their hands full worrying about passing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox. Now everybody's got to worry about the O's too.

Okay, you know I always have to say something about the old days. And I try to give Rick and our readers a bit of trivia to take to the local watering hole. So here goes. I mentioned that Matt Wieters, the Oriole catcher, was a switch hitter ... name five well-known catchers who have been switch hitters. Stop reading. Flip through the memory files.

How'd you do? According to the Encyclopedia of Baseball Catchers, there have been 82 switch hitters behind the plate. I came up with four of these well-known six ... Todd Hundley, Alan Ashby, Butch Wynegar, Ted Simmons, Jason Varitek, and of course Jorge Posada. Now you're ready to head to the bar.

On the trail of the lonesome pine...

One thing I really enjoy is talking baseball with other fans who love the game as much as I do. It’s especially fine when the person happens to be an old timer – which is sort of what I’m getting to be.

A few years ago, I met a real old timer who had seen Dodger games many times back when the team was still The Brooklyn Dodgers. This man saw Jackie Robinson hit a home run and steal home. He told me all about “The Boys of Summer” and that was just exceptionally cool. Even at 92, his memory was crystal clear and he really brought that long-gone ballpark and that amazing team to life for me. It’s was an amazing experience.

One of my clearest personal memories is an event I shared with John. No, we weren’t at the ballpark. It was on TV. I’d dropped by John’s house so we could play a little catch, maybe shag some fungoes, since we were playing softball regularly in those days.

Walking into John’s livingroom, a ball game was on: the Yankees hosting the Royals. Back then the Royals had a potent lineup, centered around their all-star third baseman, George Brett. Top of the ninth and the Royals down by a run, Goose Gossage was on the mound and UL Washington was standing on first base as Brett strode to the plate.

Brett never used batting gloves and to get a more secure grip on his bats, he used pine tar to make the handle sticky. As bats were used, more and more pine tar got on them. Yankees manager, Billy Martin (or Greg Nettles, as some stories go), had noticed that – and the fact that it was illegal – but kept the observation to himself for use at a strategic time. July 24, 1983 gave him that strategic opportunity.

I’ll let the following video tell the next part of the story. Bear in mind that John and I were watching this fascinating and memorable event unfold on TV:

Now, click here to find out what the main participant had to say more recently.

I will never forget seeing Brett, eyes bulging, a look of complete craziness on his face as he rushed out of the visitor’s dugout that afternoon. John mumbled, “Holy crap!” and we just silently watched as the circus arrived in town. What a memory of one of the oddest incidents in the history of the game.

Save Us All

Well, Tuesday night the Jays closer, Francisco Cordero, blew his third save attempt. That makes seven out of eleven blown saves so far this season for the Jays. That’s 64%, pretty bad. The other leaders at blown saves are Sergio Santos with two and Darren Oliver and Casey Janssen with one each.

The Jays managed to go ahead in the ninth, up 3-2. Cordero got burned on an inside pitch to Cliff Pennington who hit a single, scoring Michael Taylor. The big one came with the “heavy hitter” Brandon Inge – .137 – on a breaking ball served over the plate for a grand slam. Inge was released by the Tigers for lack of offense. Goes to show, you cannot relax when even a weak hitter like Inge can stroke one out of the park. Cordero was not sharp and said as much after the game. How long do we have to wait for the return of Santos? Hopefully not long. Cordero and Santos have actually made two saves apiece. Cordero, with the grand slam last night, now has an ERA of 9.53. Santos was at 9.00. These ERA are not closer numbers. The best ERA is from Darren Oliver, but he has pitched only 20 innings. Late breaking note: Cordero is out as closer and Janssen is in.

So why, 30 games into the season, have the Jays had 11 save opportunities? The starters have done their bit with good starts and lots of innings. The bullpen – which gave so much last year until they burned out – has not been effective at all this year. The whole of the pitching staff have given up 42 HR, most in the league. Still, the real truth is the offense has been completely below average.

The big bats of last year have gone cold. Why, I have no idea. The Jays have plenty of people coaching the problem, but wow. The team is hitting just .238 with an OPS+ of just 91. The Orioles have BA of .254 and OPS+ of 109. The pitching is almost the same in WHIP, Jays – 1.254 and Orioles – 1.247

On the leader boards, the Jays don’t show up but with a couple of exceptions: Kelly Johnson with runs scored at 21 and the “Big E” Encarnacion number three in HR – 9 and RBI at 25.

Everyone has an idea on why Bautista is not hitting. But all the ideas have been tried. He is just too angry with himself right now. Anger will not help the mental state of each at-bat. Until last night, he was arguing every call on every pitch. The umpires simply will not put up with that attitude. They will not give him the calls they gave last year when you challenge them like that. You have to swing at good pitches, not the bad, and they will sometimes reciprocate when it’s close. I have said that with Bautista things will improve, but he has now had 137 at bats and not much is happening.

For both Bautista and Lind, the last 100 games is not a pretty sight. Both are well below .200. Adam Lind may be on the way out. His big year of 2009 has not materialized into consistent hitting since then. One reason the Tigers released Inge is because he cannot hit consistently. So… who would we get? Lyle Overbay (44 at bats) is hitting .289 with an OBP of .474 as a utility Diamondback. Just kidding.

Only two players have a positive OPS+, Kelly Johnson – 137 – and Edwin Encarnacion – 137. Both are surprises, especially Johnson. Most of the offense to date has rested on this pair. The shocking thing is that the Jays are still only 3 back of the miracle Orioles. If we had the saves and Lind and Bautista hitting for average maybe this could have been the year. Hopefully it’s not too late.

With so many players at the Mendoza line, I wonder if there really is some other problem going on. Has the positive clubhouse mentality broken down? Are there cliques that have formed? Something is going on outside of the lines and maybe now is the time to address it. John Farrell must get in the mix.

By the way, thanks to Will for his use of ERA+. It is a great number to use and that’s why I choose OPS+ for today’s blog.

What a relief! Pun Intended

Thanks Mariano. It's bad enough to have a Red Sox player be the all-time leader in something. If it were a great guy like Carl Yastrzemski you wouldn't mind, but a guy like Pedro Martinez, yecch. Well, most fans know that Mariano Rivera, who will be out for a while after injuring himself shagging flies, is the all-time leader in saves, but few know that he has surpassed Pedro Martinez as the leader in career Adjusted ERA, or ERA+. 

The ERA+ is a pitcher's ERA adjusted for the parks he pitched in and the league's ERA. It is based at 100. If the average ERA in the league is 4.00 and a pitcher is pitching in a park that favors hitters and his ERA is 4.00, his ERA will be over 100. If the average ERA in a park is 3.00 and he is pitching in a park that favors pitchers and his ERA is 3.00 the pitcher's ERA will be below 100. 

The beauty of the ERA+ for me is that pitchers can be compared across different eras, the same way that hitters can be compared using OPS. Bob Gibson's ERA of 1.12 in 1968 was the best in the modern era – the lowest since Dutch Leonard's 0.96 ERA 54 years before. Gibson ended up just 22-9 though. I don't know if it's possible to determine, but I'm guessing that Gibson had the lowest 2-month ERA ever in '68. In 92 innings in June and July he gave up 2 runs for a 0.20 ERA. 

But in 1968 major league hitters batted .237. In 1930 the major league AVERAGE was .296. The league's ERA in 1968 was was just 2.99. How times change.

Martinez, who certainly has to be rated among the best starters of all time, had the second best season ERA+ (291) in 2000. (See below for the best.) Then we drop a bit to Dutch Leonard's 279 in 1914, then to  Greg Maddux in 1994 with 271 and 262 the very next year.

Martinez had a career ERA+ of 154, which leads Jim Devlin at 151, Lefty Grove at 148, Hoyt Wilhelm, Smoky Joe Wood, and Walter Johnson at 147, Dan Quisenberry at 146, and Ed Walsh at 145.

The career ERA+ leaders among active players (after Rivera) are Johan Santana (142), Roy Halladay (137), Tim Linecum (133), Felix Hernandez, and Jered Weaver (130).

If you are thinking that Gibson should have done better than a 22-9 record with an ERA of 1.12 consider that Tim Keefe was just 6-6 with the Troy Tojans in 1880 in spite of the best season ERA+ ever - a whopping 295. 

And Walter Johnson, who was famous for losing 1-0 games, was  just 25-17 with the 1910 Senators in spite of a sparkling 1.36 ERA.  He did better in 1913 when he had the sixth best ERA+ of all time (one ahead of Gibson's 258 ERA+ in '68). The Big Train was 36-7 in 1913. His ERA was 1.14. 

Baseball history fans talk about how great Bob Feller and others would have been if they hadn't gone to war at the height of their careers. Or what if Ted Williams had played in Yankee Stadium and Joe Dimaggio had played in Fenway? Well, what if Walter Johnson had pitched for anybody but the Senators. He might have won as many games as Cy Young.

More about Tim Keefe, Jim Devlin, Smoky Joe Wood and other great hurlers is in future installments. Mariano, I know you're 42, but heal quickly. In a game that is now all about the closer you have been the greatest. Rick talked about his regular season achievements but Rivera has also been among the greatest ever in the World Series – not that the Yankees seem headed there this year even if Mariano can come back.